This simple bitcoin indicator has called every bottom since 2015. It hasn't triggered yet
THE BITCOIN INDICATOR THAT HAS CALLED EVERY BOTTOM SINCE 2015
The cryptocurrency market has always been volatile, but one particular bitcoin indicator has proven to be remarkably reliable in identifying market bottoms since 2015. This simple indicator, which is based on the 50- and 100-week moving averages, has accurately marked every significant downturn in the bitcoin market. Traders and analysts have closely monitored this indicator, as it provides a straightforward method for predicting when the market may be poised for a recovery. However, as of April 17, 2026, this signal has yet to trigger, raising questions about the current state of the market.
WHY THE INDICATOR HAS NOT TRIGGERED YET IN 2026
The absence of a trigger from this bitcoin indicator in 2026 suggests that the bear market may still be in play. Despite a recent bounce in bitcoin's price from $65,000 to $75,000, the indicator's failure to activate indicates that this uptick could be a temporary recovery rather than a definitive turnaround. The market's underlying conditions may not yet align with the historical patterns that have prompted the indicator to signal a bottom in previous years. This situation has left traders and investors in a state of uncertainty, as they await confirmation from the indicator before making significant moves.
ANALYZING THE MOVING AVERAGES OF THE BITCOIN INDICATOR
The strength of this bitcoin indicator lies in its simplicity, relying solely on the intersection of two moving averages. The 50-week moving average serves as a short-term trend line, while the 100-week moving average provides a longer-term perspective. When the shorter moving average crosses above the longer one, it typically signals a bullish trend and a potential market bottom. Conversely, when the 50-week average remains below the 100-week average, it indicates a bearish trend. Currently, the lack of a crossover between these two lines suggests that the market has not yet reached a point of stability, which is critical for the indicator to trigger.
WHAT A TRIGGERED INDICATOR COULD MEAN FOR THE BITCOIN MARKET
If the bitcoin indicator were to trigger, it could signify a shift in market sentiment and a potential end to the current bear market. A confirmed signal from this indicator would likely encourage bullish sentiment among traders, leading to increased buying activity and potentially driving prices higher. This could create a positive feedback loop, where rising prices attract more investors, further reinforcing the upward trend. However, it is essential to approach any potential trigger with caution, as market dynamics can be unpredictable, and external factors may still influence bitcoin's trajectory.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE INDICATOR IN BEAR MARKETS
The historical performance of this bitcoin indicator has been impressive, as it has accurately called every major market bottom since 2015. Each time the indicator triggered, it coincided with significant price recoveries, providing traders with a reliable tool for navigating bear markets. The consistent success of this indicator has established it as a trusted resource for market participants. However, the current lack of a trigger in 2026 suggests that the market may still be in a corrective phase, and traders must remain vigilant as they await the next signal from this crucial indicator.